Betting Jim’s Pony Picks Sheet

To successfully handicap a thoroughbred race, you compare various data for each thoroughbred in the race to come up with the thoroughbred that has the best chance or opportunity to win. A lot of handicappers use Jockey and Trainer statistics in their handicapping, but I do not for several reasons; the biggest being I don’t think it matters how good the jockey or trainers is, they still need a good horse to ride or they are not going to win. The horse is the determining factor in the race, not the jockey or trainer. This point has been argued before by thousands of successful handicappers and will not be settled in my lifetime. But just so you know how I fell up front, I do not believe the Jockey or Trainer is as big a factor as the horse. A good horse can be ridden by a bad jockey and not win; likewise, a good jockey can ride a bad horse and not win. If the horse is a good closer, but the jockey tries to steal the race on the front end, the horse won’t have anything left to finish. Even if right before post time they announce a Jockey change on my horse, I do not change my wagers – I have bet on the thoroughbred, not the Jockey. Enough said about my feelings and handicapping guidelines.

Over a period of years, I have determined by personal wagering that some races cannot be handicapped successfully because each of the thoroughbreds in the race is almost equal in talent to the rest of the horses in the race. These races should be passed or skipped and no wagering should be done on them, unless it is a very minimum wager like a $2.00 Exacta or even a simple $1 Trifecta key costing $2.00 - save your money for the races that are playable or that can be successfully handicapped.

Unlike all other pick sheets, my pick sheet is designed to point out those races where the horses are so equal in talent that it takes a coin toss to determine which one to wager and each thoroughbred in the race has the same talent and any horse in the race can win – further I have developed a system that identifies races for three different stages of wagers (1) those races where a thoroughbred has more than a 25% chance to be in the Exacta, (2) those races where a thoroughbred has more than a 50% chance to be in the Exacta, and (3) those races where a thoroughbred has more than a 75% chance to be in the Exacta.

Here is what my sheet looks like (a slice of a regular sheet):

1		1-2-7-4-6
2	$	1-4-3-6-5
3	*	4-6-3-7-1A
4		5-1-1A-7-2-3
5		2-3-4-1-6
6	$+	2-7-8-6-3
7	*	6-1-5-3-4
8		4-7-5-6-8
9	LS	4-2-8-7-1
10	$	8-7-6-5-2

* - Indicates that the pony in the 1^st position has more than a 25% chance to get in the Exacta

$ - Indicates that the pony in the 1^st position has more than a 50% chance to get in the Exacta

$+ - Indicates that the pony in the 1^st position has more than a 75% chance to get in the Exacta

LS - Indicates that the pony in the 1^st position has more than a 50% chance to get in the Exacta with high odds

Here Is How I Personally Wager My Pick Sheets

1

1-2-7-4-6

1. On all the races where there is nothing in the 2^nd column (in red) “races 1 (shown above), 1,4,5,8” – I skip these races and concentrate on all of the other races where I have a higher percentage of winning – each of these races are too close to call and almost any horse in the race can win – I do provide the top 5 thoroughbreds and for those of you who must bet every race, just make a minimum wager like “Race 1 - $1 Tri Key 1 with 2-7 or a $1 Exacta Key 1 over 2-7”. Save your money for the other races.

3

*

4-6-3-7-1A

2. On the races were the puppy in 1^st position has more that a 25% chance of being in the Exacta “races 3 (shown above) and 7” – again I make a minimum wager but use the 1^st four thoroughbreds, i.e. “race 2 key the 4 over the 6-3-7” in the exotics, and maybe put the horse in 2^nd position with the others, i.e. “6-3-7 with 4 with 6-3-7”.

2	$	1-4-3-6-5
6	$+	2-7-8-6-3
10	$	8-7-6-5-2

3. On the races with the $ sign (race 2 & 10) or $+ sign (race 6) - these ponies have over a 50% or more or a75% chance or more of being in the Exacta, and I key them over the other 4 horses (a $12 bet in the Trifecta or $24 in the Superfecta) and maybe put them in 2^nd with the other 4, i.e., race 2 key the 1 over the 4-3-6-5, and likewise the 4-3-6-5 over 1 over 4-3-6-5 (another $12 or $24 bet). On the races with the $+ sign (race # 6 above - 75% or better chance to be in the Exacta), I use the following wager format - $2 Straight Trifecta 2-7-8, $1 Trifecta Key 2/7-8. $1 Trifecta Key 2/7-8-6, and $1 Trifecta Key 2/7-8-6-3 – this costs $22.00, but if the race finishes 2-7-8, I have the $1 Trifecta 5 times.

9

LS

4-2-8-7-1

4. On the Long Shot races, i.e. race 9 above, the horse in 1^st position has at least a 50% chance to get in the Exacta, and I play it the same way I would in item # 3 above on the races with the $ sign.

Although some people like to box their wagers, I have determined that the amount of money I save on keying versus boxing my wagers offsets the amount of money I don’t win by not boxing my wagers over a long stretch of time.

I hope that this explanation helps you in your personal wagering. The last thing that I would like to advise is to determine how much money you can afford to lose before you go to the racetrack and stay within that limit – I call this my bankroll. My personal bankroll is $50.00 per day – when I have lost my bankroll for any individual day, I discontinue wagering for that day. Believe me there will be enough good days to offset the bad days if you use these ideas in your personal wagering.